I'm still bullish on Apple's iPhone

Technology trends and news by Bambi Francisco Roizen
July 24, 2007 | Comments (6)
Short URL: http://vator.tv/n/2a

5

iPhone

AT&T announced Tuesday that 146,000 iPhone subscribers signed up for its  service in t he first two days of its launch. Good news for AT&T, given that 40% of the subscribers were new subscribers for the phone giant. But the news was largely disappointing due to expectations. AT&T shares were down nearly 1% and Apple's shares fell nearly 3% on the news. The concern is that the iPhone is getting the same attention as the hype led investors to believe. Goldman Sachs had projected 700,000 phones would be sold over the first three days.  

 

I don't know if that number will be hit, but I'm sure the number of phone sold are higher than the number activated. This is partly because people are inherently lazy and/or extremely busy. I have an iPhone sitting in my home office and I've yet to activate it. One reason is that my four-year-old Apple PowerBook G4 doesn't work with the Apple iPhone. And, one way to activate the iPhone is to go through iTunes. I'm sure I can get this activated pretty easily by going to the Apple store or to an AT&T store. But it's just too time consuming for me right now. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's time constrained. 

 

I still believe that Apple's iPhone is revolutionary and is making the world recognize the possibilities of what can be delivered on a tiny device.  

 

I'll stick with my prediction that Apple's iPhone will be well received. But now that I have a nearly $650 phone that's not activated, I'd bet that it will take Apple's next-generation, lower-priced iPhone to drive units sold to over 1 million.

 

Comments

Jimmy Wu
Jimmy Wu, on July 24, 2007

I have had the iPhone for a few weeks and I think it is a game changing device. The interface is amazing and intuitive. There were many skeptics when the very first iPod was introduced and 100 million units later, Apple has proven that it is in touch with the consumer more so than any other electronics company out there. The brilliant design of the iPhone will allow for upgrades and improvements via software, which is very appealing to users. Time to active that iPhone!


Thom Calandra
Thom Calandra, on July 25, 2007

The iPhone changes the landscape of handheld communicators in one important way: we are now, thanks to Apple designers, headed up the path of graphic displays. It's a bar the industry has tried to leap before, trying to configure a small screen that is logical, colorful and functional. Apple clearly does this with the iPhone. The small and big details will work themselves out. In another year, Apple will be twice the company it is today.

www.thomcalandra.com


Comment_gbg
Martin Ogawa, on July 25, 2007

I have a 3 iPhone family with my wife and 18 year old daughter. All three of us love our iPhone! Yes, the June 30th Activation Weekend was a horrible experience, but once we were up and running, we are now benefiting from the incredible user interface. Yes, some of us had to upgrade our Mac Operating systems or even purchase a new iMac, but being able to walk through any airport in the country and retrieve those important emails that always arrive when you are traveling. It has already saved me time and more importantly the stress and worry about powering up my laptop to check if I can access the airport's wi-fi. In addition, we now have access to Google Maps/Earth, so if there is an argument about driving directions, we can backup our position with our iPhone. I was recently checking into a hotel for a tech conference, and the clerk tried to give me the non-conference rate. Again, instead of arguing with her, I merely accesed my iPhone email and showed her the message with the conference rate. She walked off with my iPhone to show her manager the email, then asked me to forward her the email. Again, I save more $$.

My sister in New York recently activated her iPhone in one evening. This included the port from the V carrier. It sounds like activation is getting easier and easier.

As the designated Apple iPhone IT guy in my family, I have called both Apple iCare and the AT&T Activation Line multiple times after that miserable activation weekend when most of the Apple early-adopters were activating their phones. I can honestly say that the tech support has been fantastic.

Bambi, it sounds like you need a new MacBook Pro so that you can activate your iPhone!


Martin Pazzani
Martin Pazzani, on July 25, 2007

I was determined to wait until the next generation before taking the iPhone plunge. But as an avid Mac fan, two days after the intro I got a demo at the Apple store and got hooked. No lines in the store by then, plenty of phones in stock; activation/set up was a snap, and after a couple of days of use could see it was a big step forward. Then got them for my exec team and all reports are positive. A few improvements needed in the next one -- please someone improve the non-swiveling, tiny keypad so a real person can type with it -- but overall, an incredibly powerful business and personal productivity tool that is the future of mobile communications. And very fun to boot.


Bambi Francisco Roizen
Bambi Francisco Roizen, on July 25, 2007

Matthias:
I'm not jumping on the Apple bandwagon here. I've been bullish on Apple since it was well below $70 a share. Back then, my belief was that living rooms would soon be filled with white appliances - Apple products - as more content became digitized, requiring mainstream Americans to buy simple, easy-to-use electronic, integrated devices and appliances to access that content. The more Apple products I purchased, the more content I purchase via Apple, the more Apple accessories I needed, the more Apple dependent I became. The iPhone is, in many ways, another easy-to-use accessory that provides another level of efficiency for me. For instance, I've started using my Apple address book, and my iPhone will be a convenient way to hold that information, as well as my iTunes "Meet the Press" podcasts, while I'm on the go.


Comment_gbg
Carl Frederick, on July 25, 2007

Currently, I know two iPhone owners, and another planning to get it. While Apple is ahead of the competition in several technology areas, to really reap the market, it must race down the price curve on the entry-level model. The inability to do a similar feat previously, handed a key opportunity to Microsoft and its' hardware partners. As Apple drops the price on the entry-level models, more awesome features need to be added to the higher-end models. Some of these features will address current concerns of people who prefer features of existing phones having features lacking in the iPhone, over the feature that that exists in the iPhone. It'll be interesting to see how far Apple will be able to innovate, and how much of that innovation will be converted to market share, before the innovation gap narrows.


Adrian  Keys
Adrian Keys, on July 27, 2007

The iPhone will take off even more when it is unlocked (I am sure this has been done already) and available in other markets.

I may be committing sacrilege but one can look at the experience of the Razr and extrapolate what will happen to the iPhone. As soon as people found a way to unlock, they went out and bought in droves.

I agree with Bambi, we are still only scratching the surface of this iPhone phenomenon.


Bambi Francisco Roizen
Bambi Francisco Roizen, on September 7, 2007

Good call, Matthiss:
I think you and I both agree that (as I said in my post) that it will take a "lower-priced" iPhone for Apple to drive unit sales over 1 million. I have to also agree that the $200 price cut is just the first in another series that will bring this phone down below $200. The quesiton is does the iPhone drop below $200 or even $100 before yearend. The NY Times piece said this: "Mobile phones tend to be more prone to price declines because the pace of product introductions is faster than for televisions or DVD players. Motorola, for instance, introduced the ultrathin Razr phone for $499 with a two-year service contract in early 2005. Six months later, Motorola realized it had a hit on its hands and dropped the price to $199 in an effort to aim at more mainstream buyers. By the end of 2005, the price was $99." My gut tells me that you might be buying an iPhone over the next few months.


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